Hillary losing to McCain

Two new polls have come out, showing Hillary losing both Michigan and North Carolina to McCain.  What is happening to Hillary?

I have been watching, with interest, the new red-blue electoral vote maps that Jerome put on the MyDD front-page, apparently to replace the old delegate counters because they were starting to become embarrassingly bad for Hillary.  In the first few days, strangely enough, they showed Hillary winning in a general election against McCain, but Obama losing in a general election to McCain.

But the numbers keep shifting.  And today?  We see the electoral vote map estimate (as determined by Jerome) as follows:

Obama: 261, McCain 262, Undecided 15.   Margin -1
Hillary: 225, McCain 313.   Margin -88.

...And that Hillary-McCain map looks awful.  A defeat of this magnitude would probably lose us a lot more than just the presidency.  The downticket damage would have to be enormous.  And this in a year when we should be cleaning up like FDR vs. Hoover, 1932.

So what gives?  I noticed the change in MI and NC, and went a-Googlin' for poll numbers.  (After the jump)

First, the Michigan poll:

Monday, April 14, 2008
Michigan poll: McCain, Obama in close race
Gordon Trowbridge / Detroit News Washington Bureau

Democrat Barack Obama holds a small lead over John McCain in the race for Michigan's 17 electoral votes, but McCain holds a significant lead over Hillary Clinton in a new poll released Monday.

Obama, the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, leads McCain 43 percent to 41 percent, according to the survey by Lansing polling firm EPIC-MRA. Obama's lead is well within the poll's error margin of 4 percentage points, however. McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, holds a 46-37 edge over Clinton...

That's:
Obama 43, McCain 41    +2 margin.
Hillary 37, McCain 46    -9 margin.

Now let's review here.  Hillary was the only name, of the two remaining candidates, to be listed on the January Michigan ballot, which was decertified by the Democratic National Committee.  But she is losing to McCain in Michigan, and the candidate who wasn't on the ballot is beating McCain, although by only 2 points.

This sounds pretty bad.  Hear the rest of the Detroit News article:

But in a sign that Democrats still hold an edge in Michigan, when poll participants were first asked if they would vote for a Democrat or a Republican for president, without being read the names of any candidates, 43 percent said they were likely to vote for the Democratic nominee, while just 31 percent said they would probably vote for a Republican. McCain is seeking to be the first GOP presidential candidate to carry Michigan since the elder President Bush in 1988.

McCain also gets more favorable reviews from voters than either of his possible Democratic opponents. Fifty-nine percent said they had a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 55 percent for Obama and 45 percent for Clinton.

There are also signs of an unsettled electorate. Clinton won Michigan's Jan. 15 primary, but was the only major candidate on the ballot. Now, 42 percent of Michiganians in the survey said they would prefer that Obama win the Democratic nomination, to 37 percent for Clinton; 21 percent are undecided. And 51 percent of those surveyed said they were at least somewhat likely to change their mind on a presidential candidate between now and November.

Obama voluntarily took his name off the Jan. 15 ballot because Michigan violated national party rules in scheduling an early primary.  

So voters in Michigan apparently want to vote for a Democrat.  They are just torn when they are told to choose between Obama or Hillary.  Hillary loses Michigan, the first Democrat to do so since Dukakis in 1988.  Neither of them are performing as well as an "unnamed" Dem vs. Rep candidate would do.  It seems to me that the prolonged and ugly nature of the primary season has something to do with that.

In good news, in another poll, we see a red state, North Carolina, trending away from Republicans.

Rasmussen poll:

Barack Obama has caught up with John McCain in the Tar Heel State. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that both Obama and McCain attract 47% of the North Carolina vote in an early look at the race. Three percent (3%) say they would prefer a third-party option and 3% are undecided.

A month ago, McCain led Obama by nine percentage points. The current survey was completed before Obama's remarks about small-town voters made headlines.

McCain leads Hillary Clinton 51% to 40%. In that match-up, 6% say they would vote for a third party option while 3% are undecided. McCain held a sixteen point advantage over Clinton in March. ...

That's:

Obama 47, McCain 47   margin zero.
Hillary 40, McCain 51    margin -11.

The poll was taken before the "bitterness" flap.  It's interesting, though, that we could see a formerly hard-red state like North Carolina, up for grabs, even this early in the season.  It says that the general election this year may hold more surprises for the Republicans than the conventional wisdom would have it.

My overall conclusion: We need to end this nomination process as soon as we can do it fairly.  Hillary may be inflicting damage on Obama for the general election, but it is hurting Hillary in the general even more.  The strategy of throwing the kitchen sink at Obama and trying to "reveal" him as unelectable (thus prompting a superdelegate coup) is making HER less electable, as the trend in the EV map on the front page keeps showing.

All these maps and polls are just a snapshot in time, but the whole premise of Hillary's continued vigorous campaign is that, regardless of the elected, pledged delegates that Obama may have at the end of this, Hillary should get the nomination because she is "more electable."  The results suggest the opposite.  They are both losing their general election edge over McCain, but she is becoming unelectable faster than he is, at this point in time.



Display:


Beep beep. (2.00 / 0)


by Dumbo on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:21:45 AM EST

The "fighter" tag that she wants for the (none / 0)

primary might be construed more as "shrill" in the G.E. vs McSame.

Its possible.


by Priest Valon on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:31:40 AM EST

Re: Hillary losing to McCain (2.00 / 1)

What is the point of writing diaries about random general election polls 6 months out from the election? The McCain/Whomever battle has not been joined. The issues have not been engaged. I could point to a Florida GE poll out today that shows McCain crushing Obama and losing to Hillary. They all mean nothing.

Another point: once the Dem nominee is determined there will be a 10-15 point "bump" in all of these polls. McCain has already had his, which is reflected in the numbers.

Lastly, two PA polls came out today. One shows Hillary up 3, the other has Hillary up 20. Do we just average them and say she wins by 11.5, or do we link to the one we like as "proof" that Hillary/Obama is gaining in PA?


by STUBALL on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:32:38 AM EST

But Stuball... (2.00 / 0)

How else can Hillary make the argument to the superdelegates that Obama is "unelectable?"

And if she can't make that argument, then what is her rationale for taking the nomination battle to the convention floor in August, in light of the fact that it seems to hurt both of them.


by Dumbo on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:47:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Things will change (2.00 / 0)

This far out from the election, I wouldn't put too much stock into those maps. I mean right now, I find it pretty inconceivable that Obama would lose New York, and I'd probably flip at least Minnesota and Washington to blue for Clinton.

But beyond that, the CW is that McCain looks a lot better right now because our side is still contested. Once a clear nominee emerges, even if it is Hillary, they'll probably end up with a decent bounce, which would also be enough to flip at least a few of the swing states on either side.


by Jaffee on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:42:37 AM EST

Re: Hillary losing to McCain (none / 0)

Strange that you're giving Ohio to Obama (losing in RCP average) but not to Hillary (winning in RCP average).


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 04:05:18 AM EST

Let's not overlook "the ticket" (none / 0)

Aside from Stuball's astute comment above, GE polls at this point also wholly ignore how any of the candidates will later be perceived after their running mate is selected. We all know, but often forget, we'll be presented with a duo for election.

Wrong choice of veep, might kill a candidate's chances. Think Perot with Admiral Stockdale or Bush 41 with Mr. Potatoe-head.

GE polls at this point in the big run, especially when one party's candidate has not yet been determined are all but meaningless.


by RickWn on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 04:10:15 AM EST

Re: Hillary losing to McCain (2.00 / 0)

Wow, Obama loses New York but wins North Dakota?


by Skaje on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 04:30:51 AM EST

Re: Hillary losing to McCain (2.00 / 1)

well obviously those polls don't matter because they are polls.

but just them, Hillary supporters KNOW Obama can't win, no they can't point to a single shred of evidence, unless you only use the polls they say count (which just happen to only help hillary) and ignore all the polls they say are bad.

but empirical proof or evidence? pffft they don't need no stickin empirical proof or evidence!


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 08:19:31 AM EST

The idea that (2.00 / 1)

Obama can't win has all the qualities of a ritual incantation. Some people think that if they just keep on repeating it often enough, it will magically come true.

Not a winning argument to make when the unelectable candidate is beating you solidly despite all your advantages, but hey: Hillary supporters need to keep their spirits up.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:04:11 AM EST

As it has before... (none / 0)

it will again CHANGE.

7 months ago everyone was wondering who could be Giuliani and McCain was a blip on the radar.

After PA and other states that Hillary will win, these polls will all change again.....


by nikkid on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:02:29 AM EST

Re: Hillary losing to McCain (2.00 / 1)

Yet Hillary is gonna make up the 70-80% of the SDs.   Right.

C'Mon people.  She gets blown out by McCain, especially if the SDs happen to overturn the popular vote, delegates and states won.  Younger voters and African American voters will stay home.

Obama is our best chance.


by chewie5656 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:37:18 AM EST


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